As usual, national polls mean nothing since we don’t have national elections.
But let’s see where it stands in the states that count, all of these numbers are from before the DNC and Kennedy dropping out, so we’ll need a re-run in a week or two. I’m also adding some states people have been talking about.
Arizona: Toss up. Tie, Trump +1 +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Nevada: Harris +6, +8, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/New Mexico: Harris +8, +9
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/Texas: Trump +5, +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/texas/Georgia: Trump +1, +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/Florida: Trump +5, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/North Carolina: Toss up. Tie, Harris +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/Virginia: Harris +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/Pennsylvania: Toss up. Harris +1, +2, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Michigan: Harris +6, +7, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/Wisconsin: Harris +6, +7, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/Minnesota: Harris +5, +7, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/Huge shifts in Nevada, New Mexico, Michigan and Wisconsin which, under Biden, were a loss to Trump and shortly before the official shift were still barely Trump.
Trump is up in Texas, but only +5 or +6 which is consistent with the +6 win in 2020 and +9 in 2016.
Florida and Georgia are not the toss up states people are making them out to be.
The Muslim Pro-Gaza vote has had 0 impact in Michigan. Still Harris’ race to lose there.
Overall, this is the best showing for the Democrats so far this year, let’s plot it on the map:
Of the three toss up states, a win in either PA or NC puts Harris over the top. Arizona does not. She’s 2 short if she gets AZ but not PA or NC.
Trump needs BOTH PA and NC to hit exactly 270. PA + AZ he’s at 265. NC + AZ he’s at 262.
This is really the first time in months that the electoral math has been going away from Trump.
Hero!
Hero now, but man, when the numbers were going against Biden it was all “You don’t know!” and “Polls don’t mean anything!” and “The election is too far away!”
But this is why I re-run the numbers every time there’s a “National poll says…” You get to see how things change over time and man, have things changed since Joe dropped out. :)
Using the same methodology, here’s where Harris started just a month ago:
Wait… 3 percent of Democrats support Trump? There’s a 3.5% margin of error, but still.
The headline margin of error only applies at the centre (50%), and decreases towards the extremes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error#Specific_margins_of_error
Wikipedia says that for a poll with 1013 participants and the same headline margin of error, a 2% result would be ±0.8%.
It’s more likely that this is the crowd who deliberately gives the most absurd answer possible.
Vote 🗳️
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