A well-funded group of anti-Trump conservatives has sent its donors a remarkably candid memo that reveals how resilient former President Donald J. Trump has been against millions of dollars of negative ads the group deployed against him in two early-voting states.
The political action committee, called Win It Back, has close ties to the influential fiscally conservative group Club for Growth. It has already spent more than $4 million trying to lower Mr. Trump’s support among Republican voters in Iowa and nearly $2 million more trying to damage him in South Carolina.
But in the memo — dated Thursday and obtained by The New York Times — the head of Win It Back PAC, David McIntosh, acknowledges to donors that after extensive testing of more than 40 anti-Trump television ads, “all attempts to undermine his conservative credentials on specific issues were ineffective.”
The memo will provide little reassurance to the rest of the field of Mr. Trump’s Republican rivals that there is any elusive message out there that can work to deflate his support.
“Even when you show video to Republican primary voters — with complete context — of President Trump saying something otherwise objectionable to primary voters, they find a way to rationalize and dismiss it,” Mr. McIntosh states in the “key learnings” section of the memo.
“Every traditional postproduction ad attacking President Trump either backfired or produced no impact on his ballot support and favorability,” Mr. McIntosh adds. “This includes ads that primarily feature video of him saying liberal or stupid comments from his own mouth.”
For the polling underpinning its analysis, Win It Back used WPA Intelligence — a firm that also works for the super PAC supporting Mr. Trump’s chief rival in the race for the presidential nomination, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida.
Examples of “failed” ads cited in the memo included attacks on Mr. Trump’s “handling of the pandemic, promotion of vaccines, praise of Dr. Fauci, insane government spending, failure to build the wall, recent attacks on pro-life legislation, refusal to fight woke issues, openness to gun control, and many others.” (Dr. Anthony S. Fauci led the national response to the Covid pandemic.)
The list of failed attacks is notable because it includes many of the arguments that Mr. DeSantis has tried against Mr. Trump. The former president leads Mr. DeSantis by more than 40 points in national polls and by around 30 points in Iowa, where Mr. DeSantis’s team believes he has the best shot of defeating Mr. Trump. Mr. McIntosh, a former Indiana congressman who co-founded the Club for Growth and the Federalist Society, makes it clear in the memo that any anti-Trump messages need to be delivered with kid gloves. That might explain why Mr. DeSantis’s super PAC, Never Back Down, has treated Mr. Trump gingerly, even in ads meant to contrast his character and his record unfavorably against Mr. DeSantis’s accomplishments.
“Broadly acceptable messages against President Trump with Republican primary voters that do not produce a meaningful backlash include sharing concerns about his ability to beat President Biden, expressions of Trump fatigue due to the distractions he creates and the polarization of the country, as well as his pattern of attacking conservative leaders for self-interested reasons,” Mr. McIntosh writes in the memo.
“It is essential to disarm the viewer at the opening of the ad by establishing that the person being interviewed on camera is a Republican who previously supported President Trump,” he adds, “otherwise, the viewer will automatically put their guard up, assuming the messenger is just another Trump-hater whose opinion should be summarily dismissed.”
The polling conducted for Win It Back showed diminishing returns for the anti-Trump messaging and emphasized that Mr. Trump benefited from the fact that his rivals were still dividing up the non-Trump vote.
In Iowa, Win It Back observed that in the areas where it ran ads, Mr. Trump’s likely share of the Republican vote fell by four percentage points. In the areas where the group did not advertise, Mr. Trump’s support grew by five points.
Mr. DeSantis has made his handling of the pandemic a centerpiece of his campaign. But the analysis suggests that this strategy leads to a dead end.
The memo says this of Win It Back’s most promising pandemic-themed ad: “This ad was our best creative on the pandemic and vaccines that we tested in focus group settings, but it still produced a backlash in our online randomized controlled experiment — improving President Trump’s ballot support by four points and net favorability by 11 points.”
Win It Back did not bother running ads focused on Mr. Trump as an instigator of political violence or as a threat to democracy. The group tested in a focus group and online panel an ad called “Risk,” narrated by former Representative Liz Cheney, that focused on Mr. Trump’s actions on Jan. 6, 2021. But the group found that the Cheney ad helped Mr. Trump with the Republican voters, according to Mr. McIntosh. (Link from article to ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Mgjs7Gp874)
In a section of the memo titled “next steps,” Mr. McIntosh concludes, “We plan to continue developing and testing ads to deploy when there are signs of consolidation.”
It’s because Trump’s base aren’t rational thinkers weighing the pros and cons of each political candidate, they’re cult members that have fully invested their identity into Donald Fucking Trump, the you’re fired guy.
you can’t sway a Trump voter with reason… they are too cowardly for reality and reason, that’s why they cling to him… he is their magic Get out of Reality Free card, and they’re not going to give that up…
I hope Trump gets the nomination just so he’ll lose again. There’s so much bullshit rolling his way it’ll all come crashing down anyway. He’ll never win. These other psychos are insane and people might vote for one of them just because they aren’t Trump.
He’ll never win.
- People who didn’t bother to vote in 2016
I remember thinking a similar thing in early 2016
to be fair it was the second time he lost, and he only became elected - despite losing - due to a technicality.
and because he ran against possibly the worst pick of opponent there could have been.
and he only became elected - despite losing - due to a technicality.
It’s not a technicality, it’s he way the system works and it happens all the time.
and he only became elected - despite losing - due to a technicality.
That technicality is literally how every US election has worked since the beginning of the country lmao.
Imagine calling the US election process a technicality
Although literally the case, I think there is an important distinction when losing the popular vote and still winning power, it may be the reality, but I don’t have to like it, nor do I have to not wish it changes.
A lot has happened in Trump world since early 2016.
Sounds like the journalist didn’t understand the memo.
The key messages that I’m seeing flagged up are that they did find a method which basically involves former trump supporters giving their reasons for disavowing him, and that trumps share of the vote dropped 4 points where they ran ads versus a 5 point growth where they did not. That’s a 9 point swing against trump by running ads - that sounds pretty effective.
That they found things that don’t work are also positives as it means they’ve refining their method. We remain early in the primary process nota single vote has been cast yet and there are still 3 months until the the first vote.
The problem is a 9 ppoitn swing against a candidate doesn’t mean much when there isn’t a viable alternative for that to benefit. What they really need is a candidate to coalesce republican opposition behind. At the moment none of the candidates seem up to it.
Trump won the nomination in 2016 because their primaries are a winner take all system, and you just need a plurality. The sane vote was diluted amongst like 10 Republicans all incredibly ambitious. And because of that, Trump had the plurality.
They could’ve stopped it. But all of them were too proud and selfish to do so. He is the monster they made.
It’s a cult. MAGAts need deprogramming, not negative ads.
And this particular group are not good guys, either.
The constant position-changing of Fox News certainly helped create this. They’ve spent decades flipping back and forth on positions and settings, depending on whether it benefits Rs or D’s. Which means that when a Republican settles in behind a ‘leader’, it doesn’t matter that the leader’s positions or opinions have changed. The base is at a point where they’ve chosen their anchor, and they’ll cling to it against all winds and waves.
I’m kinda glad they couldn’t redirect the religious fervor to DeSantis or anyone else. Trump isn’t in great shape and he’s not getting younger, so there’s a definite shelf life for that blind devotion.
I dunno about that according to a lot of people Trump is basically the second coming of Jesus, well see if he gets his 3 day resurrection lol. May want to pour concrete over the grave just in case.
Which blows my mind because he checks so many boxes for a textbook antichrist.
He’s basically Supply Side Jesus, which is what the MAGA type conservatives really want Jesus’ teachings to be
“Conservative” in the US is not a word that describes a set of policy preferences. Not even a suite of psychological proclivities. A conservative is a person who supports the tribe, without question or reservation. You cannot undermine trump’s conservative credentials, loyalty to trump is how the base defines conservatism. Anyone who tells you not to support trump cannot, in their view, be a conservative.
Doomed to fail from the start.
That’s not something inherent to conservativism. It’s just a facet of the present-day conservative party.
It kinda is inherent to conservatism. See the Frank Wilhout quote for reference.
The right was traditionally the royalists prior to their involvement in democracy. It’s all about loyalty, and about preserving a hierarchy and basically nothing else…and it always was.
Leftists can have those tendencies as well.
And anarcho capitalists / libertarians / similar are 100% not about preserving a hierarchy. They used to exist in the right wing, before it got taken over by a cult of personality.
Right libertarians are like left tankies, they’re all a mirage and are really authoritarians trying to preserve or enforce a hierarchy based upon loyalty to some idiot at the top.
Anarcho capitalists are the same. They want only enough state to enforce contracts, enforce borders, have corporations, and an army. That’s basically the whole government minus a few social services and is not anarchy by any real definition of the word.
They’re all distinctions without a difference.
Edit: I’ve known people that were basically all of these things except tankies at any given moment depending upon what they thought the argument required and/or their level of drunkenness.
“Anarcho-capitalists” want the whole us government minus social security, Medicare, and some rounding errors.
There’s clear psychological differences between those who label themselves “conservative” and those that don’t. And one of the clear differences is the inherent tribalism among conservatives.
That’s not something inherent to conservativism. It’s just a facet of the present-day conservative party.
Loyalty to their authoritarian leader is definitely a pretty deep trait. Trump is more obviously undeserving than most, but we saw the same behavior pretty clearly with W and Reagan.
Whaaaaaat? Years of saying he was right about everything, acting like he could do no wrong, protecting him from the consequences of his words and actions, and encouraging his narcissism has lasting consequences?
If only they had one or two opportunities to stop him from running for president a second time.
Those face eating leopards are at it again
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Maybe . . . But maybe we don’t wanna be Stonecutters no more . . .
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No one likes Republicans the same way no one likes Democrats.
how much meth did you smoke to come up with that gem
Its a true, if unpopular, statement.
The Democrats are views “about as” unfavorably as Republicans: source.
Its really fucking important to acknowledge why a part like the Democrats, the clear alternative to the obviously facist Republicans, still struggle with popularity. But its clear to most people: The Democrats SUCK!. They suck for different reasons, but they still suck. They don’t give a shit about their voters, and use them as disposable tools to get into office. They focus on tokenism and don’t want to offer any material power to activist or minorities within the party. They have no real interest in primaries, and would much rather just shove in their preferred candidate. They rat-fucked the only popular candidate (Bernie) they’ve had in decades.
They suck, and its important to make note of that, because it explains why they struggle when they shouldn’t need to.
The DNC are not your friends. They are a corporate party the same as the Republicans, but trying to court a different base. They are only interested in using their voters to get to power the same way Republicans are using voters to get to power. But because of the base they have, they need to pursue different strategies around policy. Its as simple as that. I can assure you, the DNC would MUCH prefer having a ‘center’ or ‘center-right’ base, and if you look at how they’ve managed this, this is what they work towards.
looks like a lot of meth
Ignore reality to your own peril.
Democrats suck shitballs with messaging because they too are shitbags who somehow think they’re better than conservatives.
They need to attack the conservatives false values. Not Trump.
