Japan’s economy unexpectedly slipped into recession after shrinking for a second quarter due to anemic domestic demand, prompting some central bank watchers to push back bets on when the nation’s negative interest rate policy will end.
That’s pretty likely to happen in the next few years. I expect BRICS economies to continue growing while G7 ones will keep shrinking. The underlying factors driving these trends are unlikely to change.
BRICS control most of the commodities and manufacturing at this point, and US dollar is becoming increasingly irrelevant in terms of trade. Energy markets are a particularly big aspect of all this given that aside from US, G7 nations don’t have a reliable supply of energy of their own. This is a big part of why we’re seeing recessions happening all over the western world. On the flip side, China is doing massive investment into developing countries helping them build out their infrastructure and raise the standard of living. This will result in a lot of economic growth down the road as western economies continue to contract.
Western economic model has been fundamentally built on the exploitation of the Global South. Now the former colonies are shaking off the west. What we’re seeing happening in Africa is just a start of a bigger trend going forward, and that spells doom for current western regimes.
Not OP, but I think the BRICS+ are seeing continued development of productive forces (e.g. BRI; financing via the BRICS new development bank for industrial development [and not predatory credit issued for the purposes of lowering prices of export commodities thus stifling development]), while the G7 is unable to break free from neoliberal post-industrial services which have very limited real economic benefit, and in the case of Germany and presumably other west European countries, actively deinduatrializing.
I can’t point to exact sources but this is Michael Hudson’s bread and butter.
Japan, and Germany need to drop further. Would be nice if Russia, Indonesia and Brazil took their place.
That’s pretty likely to happen in the next few years. I expect BRICS economies to continue growing while G7 ones will keep shrinking. The underlying factors driving these trends are unlikely to change.
while i agree with this, which underlying factors would you say are you basing this on?
BRICS control most of the commodities and manufacturing at this point, and US dollar is becoming increasingly irrelevant in terms of trade. Energy markets are a particularly big aspect of all this given that aside from US, G7 nations don’t have a reliable supply of energy of their own. This is a big part of why we’re seeing recessions happening all over the western world. On the flip side, China is doing massive investment into developing countries helping them build out their infrastructure and raise the standard of living. This will result in a lot of economic growth down the road as western economies continue to contract.
Western economic model has been fundamentally built on the exploitation of the Global South. Now the former colonies are shaking off the west. What we’re seeing happening in Africa is just a start of a bigger trend going forward, and that spells doom for current western regimes.
Not OP, but I think the BRICS+ are seeing continued development of productive forces (e.g. BRI; financing via the BRICS new development bank for industrial development [and not predatory credit issued for the purposes of lowering prices of export commodities thus stifling development]), while the G7 is unable to break free from neoliberal post-industrial services which have very limited real economic benefit, and in the case of Germany and presumably other west European countries, actively deinduatrializing.
I can’t point to exact sources but this is Michael Hudson’s bread and butter.
I wouldnt bet on brazil, not with this halfassed coalition neoliberal government.
we aint undoing bolsonaro’s rampage that soon but things are actually looking decent for the long term if we don’t fall to fascism again.