Russia’s economy ended four quarters of contraction with a bigger growth spurt than forecast, putting it on track to return to its pre-war level as soon as next year as it adapts to the impact of international sanctions.
I think once Putin is gone there’s going to be a possibility of that. There are a few things that make me optimistic in that regard. Lots of people who lived in USSR are still around, and they have overwhelmingly positive view of it. That means younger people get to hear about USSR from their parent and grandparents who lived there. This goes a long way to counter capitalist propaganda of the style we see in the west. Most people in Russia are also proud of what USSR was able to achieve and many see it as a high point for Russia where it was technologically advanced and respected globally. Polls show that majority of people think that a state run economy results in better outcomes. This poll in particular is illustrative. The chart below asks which economic system is most correct
red is state run economy
blue is market economy
grey is undecided
Communist party in Russia is also polling pretty well, it’s around 30% of the vote. Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that it’s no longer a revolutionary party, and it is full of opportunists. However, it’s further left than pretty much anything we see in the west and it has significant support.
Another big factor is influence from China. It’s pretty clear that its development model is far more successful than the west, and it doesn’t seem like a huge leap for Russia to start emulating it going forward. Much of the core industry in Russia is already state owned, so it wouldn’t be a dramatic change to have an explicitly communist government in charge that allows for controlled private economic activity the way CPC does.
Theres not as much support for USSR or even socialism as you would like to believe. Of course people are not antagonizing it as much as western countries do, but you should also take into account that Russia uses Soviet imagery exclusively as an aesthetic selling point and does not attribute its successes to socialism but rather to the “spirit of the russian people”. Experiences of older people are often dismissed as “grass was greener in my youth” and young people are very much fed distilled anti-soviet propaganda. The great problem with bringing back socialism to Russia lies with general political apathy of the people, getting through it would require rapid and substantial changes of the living standarts, be it good or bad. Best hope lies with China influencing Russian state, otherwise I see no “stumbling into socialism” on Russia’s part without some great disaster to kick off radicalization.
Yeah, I don’t expect Russia is going to stumble into socialism and I absolutely agree with all the problems you’ve identified. Socialism is something people will have to fight for in the end, and it’s the job of socialists in Russia to educate people during the current conditions. China is definitely the biggest factor in my opinion as it shows a successful socialist model working at scale. Hopefully people in Russia will find the model aspirational as they get more exposure to it.
I think once Putin is gone there’s going to be a possibility of that. There are a few things that make me optimistic in that regard. Lots of people who lived in USSR are still around, and they have overwhelmingly positive view of it. That means younger people get to hear about USSR from their parent and grandparents who lived there. This goes a long way to counter capitalist propaganda of the style we see in the west. Most people in Russia are also proud of what USSR was able to achieve and many see it as a high point for Russia where it was technologically advanced and respected globally. Polls show that majority of people think that a state run economy results in better outcomes. This poll in particular is illustrative. The chart below asks which economic system is most correct
Communist party in Russia is also polling pretty well, it’s around 30% of the vote. Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that it’s no longer a revolutionary party, and it is full of opportunists. However, it’s further left than pretty much anything we see in the west and it has significant support.
Another big factor is influence from China. It’s pretty clear that its development model is far more successful than the west, and it doesn’t seem like a huge leap for Russia to start emulating it going forward. Much of the core industry in Russia is already state owned, so it wouldn’t be a dramatic change to have an explicitly communist government in charge that allows for controlled private economic activity the way CPC does.
Theres not as much support for USSR or even socialism as you would like to believe. Of course people are not antagonizing it as much as western countries do, but you should also take into account that Russia uses Soviet imagery exclusively as an aesthetic selling point and does not attribute its successes to socialism but rather to the “spirit of the russian people”. Experiences of older people are often dismissed as “grass was greener in my youth” and young people are very much fed distilled anti-soviet propaganda. The great problem with bringing back socialism to Russia lies with general political apathy of the people, getting through it would require rapid and substantial changes of the living standarts, be it good or bad. Best hope lies with China influencing Russian state, otherwise I see no “stumbling into socialism” on Russia’s part without some great disaster to kick off radicalization.
Yeah, I don’t expect Russia is going to stumble into socialism and I absolutely agree with all the problems you’ve identified. Socialism is something people will have to fight for in the end, and it’s the job of socialists in Russia to educate people during the current conditions. China is definitely the biggest factor in my opinion as it shows a successful socialist model working at scale. Hopefully people in Russia will find the model aspirational as they get more exposure to it.
Well they do seem on board with shooting corrupt politicians, so I guess theres a foothold there