A proxy war comes from a fundamental power imbalance on each side. The proxy is at the whim of the power behind them. If we have a globally distributed alliance of equals, then the power imbalances will be much less pronounced.
This is also why the EU should be a forerunner, but not a leader of such an alliance. It is crucial that there is no one nation or block “leading” the alliance, also not informally. We see the US being the de facto leader of NATO now risking the entire alliance falling apart and of course making any war in that context subject to being a proxy war.
Okay, but how do we avoid these situations? Let’s say we’re in this big alliance, and Kazakhstan becomes a big trading partner in an effort to rid itself of corruption and Russian influence.
Russia keeps trying to influence politics in Kazakhstan, more and more overtly, and when the Kazakhs elect a government who are fully committed to join our alliance, Russia invades.
Do we (the EU) defend Kazakhstan, which would be a proxy war in your definition, as without us they have no chance of even staying independent so the power imbalance couldn’t be greater?
This is not a hyothetical, but a close parallel of what’s happening in Ukraine by the way.
Such an alliance would not be lead by the EU. If it would lead to half of Africa, most of South America, most of West Asia and the EU to apply meaningful sanctions to Russia (e.g. not buying Russian oil through the backdoor and buying gas directly) that would be a strong deterrence w.o. sending military or weapons directly.
A proxy war comes from a fundamental power imbalance on each side. The proxy is at the whim of the power behind them. If we have a globally distributed alliance of equals, then the power imbalances will be much less pronounced.
This is also why the EU should be a forerunner, but not a leader of such an alliance. It is crucial that there is no one nation or block “leading” the alliance, also not informally. We see the US being the de facto leader of NATO now risking the entire alliance falling apart and of course making any war in that context subject to being a proxy war.
Okay, but how do we avoid these situations? Let’s say we’re in this big alliance, and Kazakhstan becomes a big trading partner in an effort to rid itself of corruption and Russian influence.
Russia keeps trying to influence politics in Kazakhstan, more and more overtly, and when the Kazakhs elect a government who are fully committed to join our alliance, Russia invades.
Do we (the EU) defend Kazakhstan, which would be a proxy war in your definition, as without us they have no chance of even staying independent so the power imbalance couldn’t be greater?
This is not a hyothetical, but a close parallel of what’s happening in Ukraine by the way.
Such an alliance would not be lead by the EU. If it would lead to half of Africa, most of South America, most of West Asia and the EU to apply meaningful sanctions to Russia (e.g. not buying Russian oil through the backdoor and buying gas directly) that would be a strong deterrence w.o. sending military or weapons directly.