• 矛⋅盾@lemmygrad.ml
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    23 hours ago

    do you have any names of said analysts? this is the second time I’ve heard this “demographic decline” point* from non-lemmygrad users.

    • this point sounds dubious/bogus because “demographic decline” is vague enough phrasing that makes it seem like slowing population growth means actual net loss in population.
    • Sceptiksky@leminal.space
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      12 hours ago

      Ok i’ve found something on one of my national media, 2023.

      For context “lefigaro” is a right wing conservative french paper. It’s interviewing PA Donnet.

      Pierre-Antoine Donnet is a experimented journalist with significant knowledge and experience with China since ~1980 (he was not happy with the Tibet events around 1985 and was present physicaly here for the Agence France Presse, the primary main source of most mainstream french media - independant medias have their own investigations). He’s been cited twice on mediapart (independant leftist journal very respected here) on the topic.

      He says basically:

      • China population declined officially in 2022, and “it started before despite the official source” as part of the source of the problem
      • PIB growth lower than targets and historical values, as a symptome of vicious circle
      • Some talk about the CCP internal conflict

      I guess he’s the primary source, but I don’t want to buy his book to give you a summary :D

    • Sceptiksky@leminal.space
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      12 hours ago

      I’ll see if I can find my source back just in case we can get something more specific. From memory it was about China going back under 1 billion people over the next 50-100 years or something