You just gotta love how US military say everything openly and in their reports. In particular, it has a forecast of US casualties and mobilization reserves in a conflict of this level.

Thesis:

  • military doctors project a [KIA and WIA] casualty rate for the US Armed Forces of 3,600\day.
  • The combat replenishment rate is 25% or 800 troops per day.
  • In 20 years of combat in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. has lost about 50,000 people.

In a conflict of the Ukrainian level, the U.S. would suffer such losses in 2 weeks.

  • The recruitment shortage is a major problem.
  • every soldier not recruited today is a strategic mobility asset [IRR or reservists] that the US will not have in 2031**
  • IRR was 700K in 1973, 450K in 1994, now at 76K.
  • These numbers will not make up for the projected losses.
  • the 70’s concept of contract forces is outdated and does not fit the current operational environment.
  • The needs of the U.S. Armed Forces for a Ukrainian-level war require a transition to conscription.

  • PolandIsAStateOfMind@lemmygrad.ml
    392·
    1 year ago

    Russia lies about it’s readiness and weapons capabilities.

    The US lies about it’s readiness and weapons capabilities… but in the opposite way.

    That’s some rare tier mental gymnastics.

    • MechanicalJester@lemm.ee
      111·
      1 year ago

      Have you watched any of the readiness analysis? Russia wasn’t maintaining their stuff because corruption.

      The US generally does, and invest massive amounts into weaponry, more than is realized.

      Hyperbole maybe but grounded in facts. I was surprised at how unready Russia evidently was, especially as the aggressor.

      • usernamesaredifficul [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
        22·
        1 year ago

        Russia hadn’t fought a war in quite some time and everyone knows it takes time for a peacetime military to readjust, learn the new tactics, and work out the issues revealed by the war. Russia’s military now has worked through those kinks and are comparatively prepared for the kind of large scale war being talked about here

        • MechanicalJester@lemm.ee
          1·
          1 year ago

          What war prepared Ukraine then? Wagner group hasn’t exactly been idle so…

          Are you predicting Russian victory or improved engagement outcomes with poorly trained conscripts?

          • usernamesaredifficul [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
            1·
            1 year ago

            the ongoing civil war in the donbass region of ukraine since 2014 meant that at the start of the war ukraine had regiments of people used to violence and fighting in the area. Of course the ongoing fighting means those units are smaller now and a lot more Russian troops are now less green

            I am predicting Russian success and Ukraine are the ones getting their military recruits by roaming press gangs right now

      • PolandIsAStateOfMind@lemmygrad.ml
        181·
        1 year ago

        Taking on entire NATO arsenal for 1,5 year while not even comitting half of their forces is actually way better than i expected for Russia after 31 years of capitalist fuckery.

        And i meant more like how the hell you can read the constant stream of US chestpounding and saberratling happening since 1st Iraq war as underestimating.