They will likely use the Crimean model in the east atleast. The west not sure. Theres a chance the west ends up being some sort of buffer neutral zone between EU and Russia.
Theres a chance the west ends up being some sort of buffer neutral zone between EU and Russia.
That would alo require installing compliant government. Last few decades proven that Russia can live with neutral or fencesitting neighbours but anything except prorussian cabinet would get couped or taken over fast.
I imagine it would depend how much of west Ukraine we’re talking about. It would do immense economic damage to Poland and likely create a lot of internal tensions. So, it would be destabilizing in the long run.
That’s true, but if it’s just territory around Lvov, then it might not make much of a difference strategically. I do agree that Russia would likely prefer to just keep it as an independent demilitarized state instead though.
I’m not sure this is more likely. It may happen, depending on what parties ending up winning elections in the West. But if the current governments remain in power I can’t see them allowing it to happen even if it meant WW3.
I think there are strong signs that the US is already pivoting away from Ukraine. It’s not their core interest, and they’re far more worried about China than Russia. There were two schools of thought in US. One said that they need to take on China directly, and the other that it would be better to break up Russia first and surround China from the west cutting it off from military support and resources that Russia affords. The latter camp won and that’s why the war in Ukraine started. The US miscalculated that Russia would be a relatively easy nut to crack, and then they could choke off China from all sides while plundering Russian resources in the process. RAND basically laid it all out in a paper they put out https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
Now it’s becoming clear that Russia hasn’t been weakened, and that Ukraine will lose the war. So, US will leave Europe holding the bag while they move on to do fuckery in Asia. Meanwhile, Europe does not have the means to keep the war going on their own. So, Russia will be dictating terms in the end.
I hope you are right. That would be the good ending. “The victory of colonialism, even in the farthest corners of the earth, is a defeat for us, and the victory of freedom anywhere is a victory for us.” – Abd el-Krim
it would be better to break up Russia first
So it wasn’t just some liberals on Reddit daydreaming of breaking up Russia, it was actual policy?! This amount of delusional thinking from the top can only be explained by racism and chauvinism. Either that or a lot of nepotism and corruption.
A lot of this thinking stems from the brief unipolar moment after the dissolution of USSR. The west saw this as the ultimate victory of the liberal world order led by the US. Russia was on its knees, and there was no other nation that could come even close to challenging the US. There was no need for diplomacy in that environment since the US was able to simply subjugate countries to their will.
This period constitutes the formative years for most of the managers of the empire like Blinken, Nuland, Sullivan, and so on. The only world they’ve known is the one where the US can simply dictate terms to the rest of the world. As the world evolved in the past decades, their thinking never adjusted to new reality. They bought into their own narrative of Russia being a gas station with nukes and China being constantly on the verge of collapse. Now it’s just an echo chamber of people telling each other what they want to hear.
I think a more likely scenario is that Russia will simply absorb the eastern part and then install a compliant regime in the west.
They will likely use the Crimean model in the east atleast. The west not sure. Theres a chance the west ends up being some sort of buffer neutral zone between EU and Russia.
That would alo require installing compliant government. Last few decades proven that Russia can live with neutral or fencesitting neighbours but anything except prorussian cabinet would get couped or taken over fast.
Also possible that Russia would let Poland absorb it and make it their problem.
I highly doubt that Russia would be ok with a NATO nation taking over west ukraine. It would only happen if NATO nations forced it to be so.
I imagine it would depend how much of west Ukraine we’re talking about. It would do immense economic damage to Poland and likely create a lot of internal tensions. So, it would be destabilizing in the long run.
giving it to poland is basically giving the US free reign to fill it with military bases tho
That’s true, but if it’s just territory around Lvov, then it might not make much of a difference strategically. I do agree that Russia would likely prefer to just keep it as an independent demilitarized state instead though.
I’m not sure this is more likely. It may happen, depending on what parties ending up winning elections in the West. But if the current governments remain in power I can’t see them allowing it to happen even if it meant WW3.
I think there are strong signs that the US is already pivoting away from Ukraine. It’s not their core interest, and they’re far more worried about China than Russia. There were two schools of thought in US. One said that they need to take on China directly, and the other that it would be better to break up Russia first and surround China from the west cutting it off from military support and resources that Russia affords. The latter camp won and that’s why the war in Ukraine started. The US miscalculated that Russia would be a relatively easy nut to crack, and then they could choke off China from all sides while plundering Russian resources in the process. RAND basically laid it all out in a paper they put out https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
Now it’s becoming clear that Russia hasn’t been weakened, and that Ukraine will lose the war. So, US will leave Europe holding the bag while they move on to do fuckery in Asia. Meanwhile, Europe does not have the means to keep the war going on their own. So, Russia will be dictating terms in the end.
I hope you are right. That would be the good ending. “The victory of colonialism, even in the farthest corners of the earth, is a defeat for us, and the victory of freedom anywhere is a victory for us.” – Abd el-Krim
So it wasn’t just some liberals on Reddit daydreaming of breaking up Russia, it was actual policy?! This amount of delusional thinking from the top can only be explained by racism and chauvinism. Either that or a lot of nepotism and corruption.
A lot of this thinking stems from the brief unipolar moment after the dissolution of USSR. The west saw this as the ultimate victory of the liberal world order led by the US. Russia was on its knees, and there was no other nation that could come even close to challenging the US. There was no need for diplomacy in that environment since the US was able to simply subjugate countries to their will.
This period constitutes the formative years for most of the managers of the empire like Blinken, Nuland, Sullivan, and so on. The only world they’ve known is the one where the US can simply dictate terms to the rest of the world. As the world evolved in the past decades, their thinking never adjusted to new reality. They bought into their own narrative of Russia being a gas station with nukes and China being constantly on the verge of collapse. Now it’s just an echo chamber of people telling each other what they want to hear.