• 1 Post
  • 116 Comments
Joined 11 days ago
cake
Cake day: February 19th, 2025

help-circle

  • The dashed line means the path is a guess. When the plane stopped sending GPS signals, Flightradar draws a straight dashed line to the direction the plane was heading to when losing the contact, and continues the path on the same speed until the real location of the plane is known again.

    And then the dashed line moves to go to where the plane has actually gone in that time.

    So, the plane hasn’t been there, this is just how Flightradar reacts to the Russia’s GPS jamming.


  • That’s what world leaders are using, though.

    In this case Ukraine gaining support by communicating using a medium used by international diplomacy outweighs the cons of Twitter getting more visibility.

    Politicians should migrate to other platforms as well, but Zelenskyj is about the last person to have to take the first step!


  • If Musk was to tamper with Zelenskyj’s visibility on Twitter, it would get noticed. It would probably backlash quite big time.

    Still, it would be awesome if world politicians could please migrate to Bluesky or even Mastodon. Maybe write all messages in two systems until the migration is reasonably ready.


  • Through the whole of 2024 the Russia was advancing faster than anyone expected.

    During that year, they managed to occupy 0.7 % of Ukraine’s territory. Which basically rounds to zero.

    the Russia now works mainly without military vehicles. Even if there was a complete collapse of the Ukrainian front, the Russia would be less able to exploit it than they were able to advance in northern parts of Ukraine in spring 2022. I’d say that the best the Russia can do is to advance about ten times as much as in 2024. That is, they could maybe occupy another 7% of Ukraine’s territory. USA can of course try helping by lifting the sanctions, but EU won’t coöperate with that.

    If USA blocks Ukraine from getting air defence missiles, the Ukrainian electricity distribution will be in deep trouble. Not the end of the world right now, when it’s already spring in Ukraine, but the next winter might get seriously bad even if the Russia has already lost by that point.

    If the EU stays supporting Ukraine, it won’t lose before the Russia does. But it might be in for its most painful year in this war 😢

    💛💙 Дякую, Україно! 💛💙



  • Possibly, but unlikely. There is a more likely scenario:

    If the Russia wins in Ukraine and manages to take over the whole country, it will be emboldened and will attack another country quite soon. Maybe we will let the Russia have that country as well, after which the Russia will attack once another country. Each time it will be more experienced and stronger. At some point we’ll decide we have to stop the Russia, and then we’re likely to have WW3.

    Putin is a master of bluff. But a funny thing is that that’s the only thing he’s good at. And that’s the only thing he does. Which means that we know that everything he ever claims is always bluff. He is very afraid of taking actual decisions, and any red lines he claims to have are all just bluff. He won’t react to anything.

    The only way to escalate with the Russia is to be inactive. The more inactivity you show, the more the Russia feels safe to attack. The more activity you show against the Russia, the less it dares to act.




  • Tanks: that’s a good number. The Russia is producing 150 tanks per year, so 11 in just one day is a great amount!

    I’m especially happy about the over 60 artillery pieces – remember, although the Russia isn’t getting halfway as much ammunition as it would need for another Bakhmut, its biggest problem is with artillery barrels. And this helps them get rid of their barrels!

    107 vehicles is okay. There’s a campaign for destroying Russian rubber-tyred logistics, so this number should be retained constantly at a high level.

    The 1050 for soldiers is dangerously low. The Russian army basically gains a few hundred soldiers for each day where it loses only 1000. Not a catastrophically low amount, but a little bit under the sustainable minimum. Hopefully it will grow again!









  • People are telling you that sources that don’t have a track record of lying are typically good sources. Beyond that, you can use the FIRMS map for reviewing if an attack has really taken place. It’s a system for detecting forest fires by satellites, but it also detects any other bigger fires. You can use it for example to see where the actual front lines are because where a lot of artillery shells explode, there’s a “forest fire” on the map. It might not show everything because if there happen to be clouds overneath, the satellites will not recognise the fire. So, it might give you false negatives, but usually not false positives.



  • Dir mögen die privaten Bahngesellschaften “Wunderbahnen” sein, aber da sind wir unterschiedlicher Meinungen. Die sind vermütlich nicht wirklich dss Ende der Welt, aber besser ist es, dass ÖV zu Staaten und Städten gehört.

    Die Idee der Liberalisierung liegt darin, den unterschiedlichen Staatsbahnen Zugang zu den Netzen anderer Staatsbahnen zu gewährleisten. Z.B. die LTG mag wohl für Lettland eine von dir geliebte “private Wunderbahn”" sein, das es eh nicht zu lettischem Gesellschaft gehört, ist aber tatsächlich eine reine Staatsfirma – gehört 100% dem litauischen Staat. Und über den Verkehr zwischen Riga und Vilnius hatten die Letten und Litauer Jahrzehnte verhandelt, bis Litauen endlich aufgegeben hat, und den Zug jetzt einfach auf eigener Rechnung fährt.

    (Außerdem finde ich deine beschissene Logik für lächerlich: wenn dir die privaten solche “Wunderbahnen” sind, wozu bist denn du gegen die Liberalisierung ? Ist das nur eine blöde Argumentierung – eine versuchte grundlose Beleidigung zum Spaß? Oder wolltest du doch nicht bullen und hattest einfach schwierigkeiten in der Schule und verstehst die Sachlage wirklich nicht?)