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Cake day: June 14th, 2025

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  • Homeless people, on average, contribute less to society than housed people, on average. Generally multiple societal structural failures and bad luck are major contributions to a person ending up homeless, but their own genetic- and nuture-driven characteristics play a role, too, and having a higher physical and mental disability burden than the average human is common.

    Also, living remotely often means subsistence is a major part of how people get on, and subsistence is an intensely knowledge- and skill-based task highly specific to locale. Hunting in rural Alaska is not immediately transferable to hunting in Greenland, and dumping someone in rural Montana is not going to poof make them an expert gatherer.






  • Sometimes regular stimulation is enough. I saw one case where a man took on an orphaned infant where there wasn’t even any animal milk available to hack together formula, and the starving infant attempting to get milk out of his nipple every hour for multiple days was enough to get the one breast to start making milk, and the infant lived thanks to it.

    The need for suckling to stimulate milk production is a catch-22 for women who don’t make enough milk. They have to supplement with formula to prevent “failure to thrive”, but the infant spending some of its sucking time on a bottle instead of a breast reduces their supply even more, so then they have to feed even more formula… There are devices that run a tube to the nipple so the infant can get formula from the tube while at the same time stimulating breast milk production, and they work, but look like a huge pain.




  • Overall job loss is not what happened the last thirty-odd times the federal minimum wage was raised, or any of the times individual states raised minimum wage, but go ahead and believe it will happen the next time for sure.

    What has happened is the newly higher-paid employees spend that money, and the new demand creates new jobs, enough to offset the losses from the old employers deciding to manage with a smaller staff. As long as the size of the increase is in the same range as all the previous ones, there’s every reason to believe the effect would be the same.

    I wish the federal congress would just do several years of catch-up increases, then tie it to inflation so we can stop arguing about it.









  • Debt is less risky to a country than a person in the sense of “if you owe the bank a million dollars, you have a problem; if you owe the bank a billion dollars, the bank has a problem”. Smaller countries with less attractive debt definitely have problems associated with excessive national debt. US debt is especially resilient because the next-most-attractive national debt is much less attractive, so it can fall a long ways before switching investments makes sense. But it can’t fall forever - there is competition - and the complexities of the market mean we can’t predict exactly what actions would be the final straw to trigger that shift, so even flirting in that direction is hugely risky.

    Even short of the US falling out of most-attractive-debt status, there are bad things that happen as it becomes seen as more risky, tied to the way that risk perception drives up interest rates on Treasury bonds. Higher long-term interest rates make the national debt go up faster, accelerating the risk of full-on loss of most attractive status. They also benchmark all other interest rates in the economy, making all kinds of business investments less viable and thus stifling the innovation needed to keep the economy delivering for its people.