I find John Mearsheimer’s prediction that Russia seeks to turn Ukraine into a inert rump state as a bulwark against NATO to be convincing. Given the apparent lack of military vitality of the west, and the indefinite delayed entry of Ukraine into NATO, the fate of Ukraine seems pretty clear. The Ukranian military command must see the writing on the wall and must also perceive NATO’s wavering material support after treating Ukranians as sacrificial pawns.
As the deceit of NATO becomes undeniable, even to Ukranians, how likely are we to see Nazis march west? What factors are involved? Imagining we see Ukraine turn on NATO, what would a NATO response look like, and what would this do to the information war? Do you think Zelelenski would still be the nominal leader at this point?
Not if Russia completes it’s goal of demilitarizing and denazifying the Ukraine. In that case Ukronazis with loaded NATO weapons would be pushed to same NATO countries they be holding responsible for their defeat. At that point things would really be interesting with all the ongoing protests now having Nazis among them.