Elon Musk once scoffed at the notion that BYD could compete with his company. Now, the automaker run by billionaire Wang Chuanfu is poised to be the new No. 1 in electric vehicles.
If Tesla actually comes out and makes 20 million vehicles sometimes in the 2030’s and can get reasonably high profits, I don’t think it’s as far fetched
Problem for Tesla becoming that big, is not just that others are making decent electric cars now. The problem is that Tesla is no longer the technology leader, which they were by far for about 10 years. But today we have Blade batteries from BYD that are both safer and cheaper than Tesla, The 50% VW owned Yiwei, just released a new car with sodium-ion batteries, which are cheaper more durable and works better at low temperatures, and can charge faster than existing batteries. The engines VW already uses in their ID series are way better engineered than Tesla, resulting in both more compact and lower weight than a Tesla with equivalent power. All in all Tesla is losing their technological leadership in key areas like Batteries, charging and engines. The rest is basically a traditional car, except the computer AI which Tesla is also behind on.
It’s naive to think other EV makers can’t build cars as cheap as Tesla, Tesla had a very strong head start, and traditional car makers have had a very serious disruptions in their development and some supply chains, which they are only just now beginning to manage about as well as the old ways.
But something is happening in the industry, that I’m not quite aware of what is. But 10 years ago, we could buy a new car here for 75K DKK, adjusted for inflation that would be about 87K today. But the cheapest car available today is 139K, so it’s 50% more expensive to buy the cheapest car today, than what was possible 10 years ago??? To be fair it’s one model series higher.
Obviously for a time, it was the chip shortage, that meant the cheapest cars were the first to get axed dur to the shortage. But the shortage is over, so why haven’t the cheap cars come back? This is something that has happened across all makers of the cheapest available cars! More expensive cars have gone up too, but not as much.
My point of mentioning this, is that you shouldn’t discard the competition from traditional car makers, they are all in this to make money. The money is moving more towards EV, so car makers too are moving more towards EV. They are far from in full force yet, as they ICE production is still the majority of their revenue and profits. But maybe the reason the cheap cars haven’t come back, is that they want to make us used to pay more, and make EV more attractive?
I claim that currently, traditional car makers could make and sell ICE cars that are at least a third cheaper than what is currently available, and still make a profit on them. But for some reason they choose not to. So don’t be too sure they can’t make EV cheaper and more competitive too, but they do what makes them the most money. And when VW sell an ID7 it’s very likely at the cost of a VW ICE car.
So just like you say Tesla competes with ICE mostly, so do traditional car makers, except they are also competing against their own products. How the bean counters value this I don’t know, but I bet they try to prevent to much disruption, because disruption cost money, and they try to prevent competing to much against themselves.
In a few years the tilt will be more clearly towards EV, and that will change the economic models for traditional car makers, and that’s when traditional carmakers will be all in to compete in EV markets.
Most have already arrived, and they’ve come to stay, but they are not in full force yet. Except the Chinese that have car makers that like Tesla started with electric and only make electric.
Problem for Tesla becoming that big, is not just that others are making decent electric cars now. The problem is that Tesla is no longer the technology leader, which they were by far for about 10 years. But today we have Blade batteries from BYD that are both safer and cheaper than Tesla, The 50% VW owned Yiwei, just released a new car with sodium-ion batteries, which are cheaper more durable and works better at low temperatures, and can charge faster than existing batteries. The engines VW already uses in their ID series are way better engineered than Tesla, resulting in both more compact and lower weight than a Tesla with equivalent power. All in all Tesla is losing their technological leadership in key areas like Batteries, charging and engines. The rest is basically a traditional car, except the computer AI which Tesla is also behind on.
It’s naive to think other EV makers can’t build cars as cheap as Tesla, Tesla had a very strong head start, and traditional car makers have had a very serious disruptions in their development and some supply chains, which they are only just now beginning to manage about as well as the old ways.
But something is happening in the industry, that I’m not quite aware of what is. But 10 years ago, we could buy a new car here for 75K DKK, adjusted for inflation that would be about 87K today. But the cheapest car available today is 139K, so it’s 50% more expensive to buy the cheapest car today, than what was possible 10 years ago??? To be fair it’s one model series higher.
Obviously for a time, it was the chip shortage, that meant the cheapest cars were the first to get axed dur to the shortage. But the shortage is over, so why haven’t the cheap cars come back? This is something that has happened across all makers of the cheapest available cars! More expensive cars have gone up too, but not as much.
My point of mentioning this, is that you shouldn’t discard the competition from traditional car makers, they are all in this to make money. The money is moving more towards EV, so car makers too are moving more towards EV. They are far from in full force yet, as they ICE production is still the majority of their revenue and profits. But maybe the reason the cheap cars haven’t come back, is that they want to make us used to pay more, and make EV more attractive?
I claim that currently, traditional car makers could make and sell ICE cars that are at least a third cheaper than what is currently available, and still make a profit on them. But for some reason they choose not to. So don’t be too sure they can’t make EV cheaper and more competitive too, but they do what makes them the most money. And when VW sell an ID7 it’s very likely at the cost of a VW ICE car.
So just like you say Tesla competes with ICE mostly, so do traditional car makers, except they are also competing against their own products. How the bean counters value this I don’t know, but I bet they try to prevent to much disruption, because disruption cost money, and they try to prevent competing to much against themselves.
In a few years the tilt will be more clearly towards EV, and that will change the economic models for traditional car makers, and that’s when traditional carmakers will be all in to compete in EV markets.
Most have already arrived, and they’ve come to stay, but they are not in full force yet. Except the Chinese that have car makers that like Tesla started with electric and only make electric.