he takes a couple pages to explain why he know that sightings of UFOs aren’t alien because he can simply infer how superintelligent beings will operate + how advanced their technology is. he then undercuts his point by saying that he’s very uncertain about both of those things, but wraps it up nicely with an excessively wordy speech about how making big bets on your beliefs is the responsible way to be a thought leader. bravo

  • swlabr@awful.systemsEnglish
    1·
    1 year ago

    I should probably also say: Kids, don’t try this at home ($150K bets at 150:1 odds) unless you have read the literature on expert overconfidence, and tested your own calibration repeatedly.

    I heard Yud got some ribs removed so he could “test his own calibration”