The finding is not the result of any new intelligence. It was declassified and released Saturday on the orders of President Donald Trump’s pick to lead the CIA.
Yeah, but if you don’t have enough evidence to prove something conclusively, but the limited evidence you DO have supports one particular theory, then it’s fine to say that you have a preferred theory with low confidence. Occams razor is frequently applied in these situations in order to pave a way forward, knowing that it could be wrong. It’s a matter of taking your best guess based on limited evidence.
Yeah, but if you don’t have enough evidence to prove something conclusively, but the limited evidence you DO have supports one particular theory, then it’s fine to say that you have a preferred theory with low confidence. Occams razor is frequently applied in these situations in order to pave a way forward, knowing that it could be wrong. It’s a matter of taking your best guess based on limited evidence.
Great points!