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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: July 14th, 2023

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  • balanced budget amendment

    Nonononono.

    The federal government has achieved fiscal balance (even surpluses) in just seven periods since 1776, bringing in enough revenue to cover all of its spending during 1817-21, 1823-36, 1852-57, 1867-73, 1880-93, 1920-30 and 1998-2001. We have also experienced six depressions. They began in 1819, 1837, 1857, 1873, 1893 and 1929.

    Do you see the correlation?

    The one exception occurred in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when the dot-com and housing bubbles fueled a consumption binge that delayed the harmful effects of the Clinton surpluses until the Great Recession of 2007-09.

    Because:

    National debt is not like individual debt.

    National debt is not like individual debt.

    National debt is NOT like individual debt!

    But at least our most senior treasury officials must understand this, right?

    Treasury.gov site:

    Key Takeaways

    The national debt is composed of distinct types of debt, similar to an individual whose debt may consist of a mortgage, car loan, and credit cards.

    Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu








  • If an LLM consumes the same copyrighted content and learns how to copy its various characteristics, how is it meaningfully different from me doing it and becoming a successful writer?

    That is the trillion-dollar question, isn’t it?

    I’ve got two thoughts to frame the question, but I won’t give an answer.

    1. Laws are just social constructs, to help people get along with each other. They’re not supposed to be grand universal moral frameworks, or coherent/consistent philosophies. They’re always full of contradictions. So… does it even matter if it’s “meaningfully” different or not, if it’s socially useful to treat it as different (or not)?
    2. We’ve seen with digital locks, gig work, algorithmic market manipulation, and playing either side of Section 230 when convenient… that the ethos of big tech is pretty much “define what’s illegal, so I can colonize the precise border of illegality, to a fractal level of granularity”. I’m not super stoked to come with an objective quantitative framework for them to follow, cuz I know they’ll just flow around it like water and continue to find ways to do antisocial shit in ways that technically follow the rules.


  • A storm descends on a small town, and the downpour soon turns into a flood. As the waters rise, the local preacher kneels in prayer on the church porch, surrounded by water. By and by, one of the townsfolk comes up the street in a canoe.

    “Better get in, Preacher. The waters are rising fast."

    “No,” says the preacher. “I have faith in the Lord. He will save me.”

    Still the waters rise. Now the preacher is up on the balcony, wringing his hands in supplication, when another guy zips up in a motorboat.

    “Come on, Preacher. We need to get you out of here. The levee’s gonna break any minute.”

    Once again, the preacher is unmoved. “I shall remain. The Lord will see me through.”

    After a while the levee breaks, and the flood rushes over the church until only the steeple remains above water. The preacher is up there, clinging to the cross, when a helicopter descends out of the clouds, and a state trooper calls down to him through a megaphone.

    “Grab the ladder, Preacher. This is your last chance.”

    Once again, the preacher insists the Lord will deliver him.

    And, predictably, he drowns.

    A pious man, the preacher goes to heaven. After a while he gets an interview with God, and he asks the Almighty, “Lord, I had unwavering faith in you. Why didn’t you deliver me from that flood?”

    God shakes his head. “What did you want from me? I sent you two boats and a helicopter.”